How to forecast workload by type of work

01

Group comparable work

Choose a forecast period and group requests by the effort and skills they typically require. Use recent records to estimate volume and handling time for each group. Note changes in pricing, campaigns, seasonality or service scope that could make the past less representative.

Include work already in the queue and recurring obligations separately from expected new arrivals. Identify assumptions and the source of each estimate so the team can update them when new information arrives.

02

Convert demand into hours

For each work type, multiply expected items by estimated hours per item. Add the hours for existing backlog and other committed work, taking care not to count the same item twice. Compare the total with usable hours for the people qualified to do it.

Hypothetical example: a team expects 30 routine requests at one hour each and 10 complex requests at three hours each. New demand is 60 hours. An existing backlog requires another 12 hours, for 72 hours total. If qualified staff have 65 usable hours, the forecast has a seven-hour shortfall before any unplanned work.

03

Review a range and update the plan

Create a lower and higher demand scenario using explicit volume or effort assumptions. Check which skills and dates would be affected in each case. Decide in advance who can defer work, change scope or request help if demand exceeds the plan.

At the end of the period, compare actual arrivals, hours and completions with the forecast by work type. Record why the difference occurred, such as a changed work mix or an estimate that missed review time. Use that evidence to revise the next forecast.

Continue the example with a higher-demand scenario: 35 routine requests and 12 complex requests require 35 plus 36, or 71 hours. Adding the same 12-hour backlog gives 83 hours, an 18-hour gap against 65 usable hours. The team can use that gap to discuss which work has a firm deadline and which can be rescheduled; it should not assume all 18 hours can be moved to any available person.

A forecast is not a commitment from the customer. Track confirmed work separately from possible demand, and check whether large requests could arrive in the same week. If the history contains incomplete time records or unusually large jobs, show that limitation and review the estimate with the people doing the work.

04

Save forecasts for comparison

To check the forecast, save the version made before the week starts. Afterward compare actual arrivals and effort for each work type with those saved figures; write down the main cause of any large difference. Do not quietly update the old forecast after the fact, or you lose the ability to see where your estimates need work.